Very thorough model! Interesting to see NC-11 and FL-07 quite close, wonder if scandals and a blue wave push those over. Do you plan on showing the national environment you're forecasting?
Thank you for your insights! If Democrats hold Davis' seat in NC and flip NC-11, the GOP might regret their gerrymander. The national environment used in the most recent update was D+6,7 which would be less than 2018. I should also note that is map doesn't include new maps in Tennessee and Louisiana as I am awaiting how legal challenges will play out there. Still, Democrats are favored to win the house even if those states get to use new maps
Yeah, I was a little surprised Republicans didn't try do play defense with their NC redraw. I've been working on my own model for my substack and have found a roughly D+6.8 environment, so interesting that you're getting the same numbers.
Very thorough model! Interesting to see NC-11 and FL-07 quite close, wonder if scandals and a blue wave push those over. Do you plan on showing the national environment you're forecasting?
Thank you for your insights! If Democrats hold Davis' seat in NC and flip NC-11, the GOP might regret their gerrymander. The national environment used in the most recent update was D+6,7 which would be less than 2018. I should also note that is map doesn't include new maps in Tennessee and Louisiana as I am awaiting how legal challenges will play out there. Still, Democrats are favored to win the house even if those states get to use new maps
Yeah, I was a little surprised Republicans didn't try do play defense with their NC redraw. I've been working on my own model for my substack and have found a roughly D+6.8 environment, so interesting that you're getting the same numbers.