The recent sexual assault allegations against Graham Platner, the Democratic Candidate in the Maine Senate race, are troubling. Luckily, in the Democratic Party, these allegations still have consequences. Endorsements are already being pulled, and Platner is likely to drop out. It begs the question: Can Democrats still win Maine?
Contents
How We Got Here
Replacing Platner: Mills or Jackson?
How Can Democrats Win?
How We Got Here
Maine’s Senate seat is something of a must-win for Democrats this November. It’s the easiest seat on paper, given that Maine is the only target for Democrats that is a likely Democratic state (Kamala Harris won here by 7 points). Still, Democrats knew they were in for a tough battle, as Republican Susan Collins, a longtime Senator with moderate appeal, is running for re-election. In 2020, when Biden carried the state by 9 points, Collins secured re-election despite being down in most polls. Her 8-point victory over Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon is, however, a little inflated. Maine uses ranked-choice voting, but Collins won just over 50% in the first round, so the process never kicked in. Gideon was left behind at 42%. Had the ranked-choice process been used, Gideon would have closed the gap as the third-party candidates favored her.
2026 will likely be a few points bluer than 2020, and Collins is more unpopular than she was back then. It became the prevailing sentiment that Democrats just need to run an ordinary candidate to defeat Collins in a Trump-midterm. Yet, primary voters chose Graham Platner as their candidate, despite already knowing about scandals involving online comments and an accidental Nazi tattoo. Platner had already been losing ground to Collins in the polling averages. He went from being ahead by six points to being tied with Collins. The sexual assault allegations likely bury his campaign, but they are far from a gift for Collins. Because Democrats still have a few weeks to replace Platner on the ballot should he drop out. Their new candidate will have a lower profile and less time to beat Collins, but he or she will also have less baggage and, in one case, very favorable polling.
Replacing Platner: Mills or Jackson?
An obvious, albeit problematic, choice would be Maine Gov. Janet Mills. Why do I say problematic? After all, a Governor running for a Senate seat should be an easy bargain ( just think about Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who will likely cruise to victory in November). Well, Mills is one of the more unpopular Governors of the nation; she is almost 80 years old, and she has already run. She eyed the nomination but dropped out after it became clear that she would suffer an embarrassing primary defeat to newcomer Platner. The entire saga of events - Mills’ failure to beat Platner - raises questions about her potential electoral performance. Perhaps Democrats need someone with a blank slate.
Another choice would be Troy Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, who ran for Governor this year but lost the primary to Hannah Pingree. Jackson, an ally of Bernie Sanders, would be more closely aligned with Platner’s popular values and policies. Of course, he lacks Platner’s populist appeal, but that might turn out to be an advantage. Mainers like Platner’s policies, but they obviously dislike the scandals surrounding them. Jackson would be a more experienced candidate who is, quite frankly, more boring. That could shift the attention away from scandals and back to Susan Collins, who will then have to defend her Senate voting record to an electorate that broadly dislikes President Trump.
Jackson’s clean slate appeal is also appearing in a hypothetical Senate poll. In the most recent Wedgewood Senate polls, Susan Collins beats Graham Platner by 4 points and is tied with Gov. Janet Mills. In a match-up against Jackson, however, Susan Collins loses by 5 points. The poll was fielded before the newest scandal broke.
How Can Democrats Win?
As you can see above, Susan Collins ’ electoral performance is not immune to partisan polarization and Maine’s blue trend. A polarization that, in 2024, defeated Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana.
Still, Democrats need two things to finally defeat Susan Collins: A very strong midterm environment and a decent, unproblematic candidate. They will likely meet the first requirement come November, but it long seemed like Platner could squander the second. If he drops out, Democrats get another shot at nominating a safer bet. That logic is also the reason why betting odds for Democrats winning in Maine have risen, instead of fallen, after the Platner story broke. Predictors seem to view Platner’s fall as more of a gift to Democrats rather than a liability.
Quite a few candidates may throw their hat in the ring, but voters won’t get to choose the replacement. That is now up to the party. Should they miss this opportunity or should Platner stay on, Republicans will, in all likelihood, hold the Senate.
Platner dropped out. Though even without Maine it's not a slam dunk for Republicans to hold the Senate. Democrats are at 47 seats, so they need to flip 4 to get a majority. Democrats are not defending any hard seats, Georgia having been made easy by candidate quality and Michigan being one of the bluest of the seven core swing states. North Carolina is basically a guaranteed flip, so that's 48. Texas has a very low approval of Trump (about 41% for registered voters and about 36% for all adults), in the same ballpark as Wisconsin and North Carolina, plus the Republican candidate is very deeply flawed, making it, in my opinion, a likely flip, so that's 49. Ohio has a Democratic candidate who lost by under 4 points in 2024, making it a likely flip as well given the national environment is most likely going to be D+6 or more, so that's 50. Alaska is very similar to Ohio in that the Democratic candidate is especially good, but ranked-choice voting makes it slightly less likely, while Iowa's polling seems promising for Democrats, and Nebraska has Dan Osborn running as an Independent, making it a wild card, giving three options to get up to 51 without Maine.
I'd say Democrats' absolute floor is 45 (somehow lose Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, which is not going to happen because Trump is still underwater), likely floor is 47 (no flips made except North Carolina but Republicans flip Michigan), most likely outcome is 52 (Democrats flip North Carolina, Maine, Texas, and two of Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Nebraska while not losing any seats of their own), likely ceiling is 54 (Democrats flip all of North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Nebraska), and absolute ceiling is 56 (Democrats get to 54 and also flip Florida and one other state, most likely due to the conjunction of an economic downturn and some crazy scandals if it happens).
Nice data