Democrats just had a historic night. My forecast predicted they would win back control of the House and the Senate, but last night exceeded my expectations. The floor for Republicans fell out, and Donald Trump suffered a historic loss. Here are the results.
Quick Overview:
Senate: 54D to 44R (2 uncalled), Democrats Win Majority (flip +7 to +9 seats)
House: Likely Estimate 258D to 177R (228 seats already called for Democrats)
Governor: Democrats FLIP five states (Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Nevada), and are favored to flip Alaska.
DEMOCRATS SWEEP SENATE RACES
I am still searching for words as to how historic that victory is. Let’s start with the Senate. In early 2025, Democrats’ odds to retake the Senate were stuck between 10-20%, because the map they faced was just that difficult. Month by Month, their odds slowly rose because they nominated quality candidates and Trump became incredibly unpopular.
My final predictions had Democrats winning 53 Seats, and while their final tally might only end up slightly better than 53, it masks the extent of this political earthquake.
For one, Democrats flipped Ohio by over five points and returned Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate. They also finally defeated Susan Collins (R) in Maine, where Troy Jackson is leading by eight points.
I always mentioned that flipping Texas would amount to an earthquake in the political world. Well, James Talarico delivered on Democrats’ dream to finally turn Texas blue. That alone could be the headline of the year, but the fact that he won by over ten points is just hard to grasp. That’s a 24-point shift from 2024 in the face of record Republican spending, which included hundreds of millions from Elon Musk. Now, the former conservative fortress might be a state to consider for the map in 2028. (Texas Republicans faced a wipeout last night, more on that below).
Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 100 years, and it wasn’t even particularly close either. Adam Hamilton (D) beat incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by five points in a state Trump carried by 17 in 2024. In Iowa, Josh Turek (D) defied expectations (including mine) and defeated his strong Republican opponent Ashley Hinson by four points to flip the chamber.
The most stunning flip for Democrats, however, needs to go to South Carolina (for now). Polls there were close, and the state’s polarized electorate was thought to be too tough to overcome by many. In the end, Annie Andrews (D) beat Darlene Graham (R) by four points.
Mississippi is still counting, but Democrats are on the verge of an historic upset. Over 95% of the votes are in, and Democrat Scott Colom is leading incumbent Cindy Hyde Smith by just 43 votes. The fact that Democrats might flip Mississippi is by itself a miracle. Mississippi is the most racially polarized state in the United States. Just fifty years ago, racism, segregation, and the Ku Klux Klan dominated the state. Now, Scott Colom might become the first black Senator in Mississippi.
As I wrote in my final forecast, if Democrats were to flip a state like Mississippi, I would eat a shoe. Just to give you a sense of how good this night has gone for Democrats. Democrats were highly worried about another polling error that underestimated Republicans, but for the first time since I’m following politics, the polls actually underestimated the Democrats. (I’ll probably deal with the why in a later article)
Alaska is still counting, and while Republican Senator Dan Sullivan holds a narrow lead, the outstanding vote favors Mary Peltola (D).
Roy Cooper flipped North Carolina’s Senate seat. He was expected to win by around ten points, but ended up winning by almost 20.
In Georgia, a state Trump won by two points, Democrat Jon Ossoff defended his seat in a landslide. Ossoff is widely considered a popular presidential candidate for 2028 and after his victory last night, he is probably the frontrunner should he decide to run.
In total, Democrats will flip between 7 and 9 seats, depending on how Alaska and Mississippi will go. Considering the difficult map they were dealing with this year, that is an astonishing result. One that was unthinkable just a few months ago.
There was one word Steve Kornacki, NBC’s now world-famous election-nerd, couldn’t stop saying tonight: “Wow”.
House: Democrats Estimated to Win 258 Seats
In the House of Representatives, the floor fell out for Republicans. My forecast has Democrats winning 236 seats, which would have already been a very solid majority. I also noted that Democrats had much more upside potential than Republicans (the average seat was 243 for Democrats). As of this moment, they have won or are leading in 262 districts. The NYT estimates Democrats to end up with 258 seats this morning, the largest majority since 1992. The congressional popular vote (all votes in the House combined) looks even more shocking. The New York Times estimates it to come out at D+13, the best result for any party in over 50 years. There are many, many notable upsets I could highlight, but I want to keep this article brief.
The only house contests I need to talk about are in North Carolina. Republicans gerrymandered North Carolina’s map to gain a single additional seat. They failed to do so, and their gerrymander created many R+15 seats to dilute Democratic voters. Republicans thought they couldn’t possibly lose those seats. They were wrong. Democrats will likely flip a total of five seats just in North Carolina, making the map a dummymander.
Democrats Write History, 75% of Americans will Have a Democratic Governor
The margins of victory in some Senate races were so astoundingly large that it quickly became clear that Democrats would upset Republicans in key gubernatorial races.
In Texas, Gina Hinojosa unseated incumbent Greg Abbot to become the first Latina Governor in the history of Texas and the first Democratic Senator in Texas in the 21st century. I mentioned before that Texas, long the heartland of conservative America, became a nightmare for Republicans last night. Republicans are on track to lose every statewide race in Texas, and they might even lose the Texas House.
In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottom became the first African American Governor in the United States’ history and the first Democratic Governor in the state in over 20 years. Bottom’s race was initially expected to be very close – I gave it a cautious Tilt Democratic rating – but Georgia Democrats had a fantastic night. That has a lot to do with Jon Ossoff. Bottoms was expected to underperform Ossoff by about ten points, and Jon Ossoff was forecasted to win his Senate race by around ten points. Therefore, the governor race was expected to be a close call. Ossoff, however, swept away his Republican opponent in an 18-point landslide victory. Bottoms ended up winning by eight.
In Ohio, Dr. Amy Acton (D) defeated Vivek Ramaswamy (R) by 8 points. Ramaswamy had faced huge backlash after he used the sexual abuse Acton had suffered as a 12-year-old in an attack ad.
Democrats also flipped Iowa and Nevada, and they are expected to win the Governor’s seat in Alaska as well.
Republicans had one seat where, even in the most dire predictions, they were favored to flip a Governor’s Seat: Kansas. While Cindy Holscher is underperforming Democratic Senate Winner Adam Hamilton, she is still slightly ahead in a tight race with <95% of the votes reported.
The only good news for Republicans, and “good” is a big stretch here, is that Byron Donalds (R) narrowly defended Republican’s Governor Seat in Florida. Moderate Republican Phil Scott also held on in blue Vermont, but his 50-point victory from 2024 shrank to just six points last night.
Trump +30 in Tennessee almost delivered the upset of the night, but Marsha Blackburn (R) managed to win the governor’s race for Republicans by about two points.
How did this happen & What Will Happen Now?
I have a gazillion ideas I want to test and analyze, but I desperately need some sleep. For now, all I can say is that this is probably the biggest election victory for any party in this century. If the congressional ballot really comes out at D+13, then it’s the biggest popular vote victory since the 1970s.
What does it mean for Trump? He’s in a lot of trouble. He can’t pass any more laws without Democrats, he won’t get to pick any more Supreme Court Justices, and he will face inquiries and maybe even impeachment trials in the House. That’s just what Democrats’ majority gets them, but they won so big that it will have further effects.
Trump will be gone after 2028, and he has left the Republican Party in shambles. With 54-56 Senate seats, Democrats are almost certain to keep control of the Senate in 2028, unless they lose in a landslide.
Trump almost seemed conciliatory last night, and he, believe it or not, even accepted all results. His response was largely focused on shifting all blame away from him, saying that Republicans lost because he wasn’t on the ballot (He has spent the past month telling voters to vote as if he were on the ballot, which they did).
We likely have two years of Trump left, but today, Trump’s divisive era ended with a historic and unequivocal loss.