Jan 6th Riot Poll: 30% of American Voters are Unreachable for Democrats

Would a third of the American Electorate vote for a Nazi?

A question I get asked quite often is: how many Americans, how many Trump voters, are actually as crazy as the stereotype, and how many could be persuaded not to vote for him?

I’ve often estimated that between thirty and forty percent of voters in America would always vote for Trump or any other Republican candidate, no matter the circumstances. By that logic, about a third of the American Electorate could not be won by any Democratic candidate, unless there are seismic changes to America’s political divide. I arrived at that number by following my intuition, but the 2024 Gubernatorial Election in North Carolina provided me with some real data to back it up.

North Carolina, a swing state, was won by Trump with a margin of about three points in 2024. At the same time, North Carolina voters also chose a new governor. It was an open seat, since the incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper could not seek re-election due to term limits. In a swing state like North Carolina, it should’ve been a close race. However, Democratic candidate Josh Stein won the vote handily as his Republican challenger Mark Robinson received a meager 40.08%. Trump carried the state with a vote share of 51% on the same ballot. Such a result may seem surprising to someone unfamiliar with the election, but those who followed the news closely know that the real surprise is that Robinson somehow managed to get even 40% of the vote.

Here’s why: Robinson was a frequent visitor to porn-booths, called himself a “Black Nazi” on a porn platform, called homosexuals “filth,” and, because that wasn’t enough, denies the Holocaust. He was so scandal-ridden that even Trump, who previously called Robinson Martin Luther King Jr. “on steroids,” had to cancel rallies with him. When Interviewers asked die-hard Trump fans at his rallies about whether they would vote for Robinson, many seemed skeptical. Yet, in the end, Robinson still received 40% of the vote (over two million votes) in a state that almost perfectly mirrored the national environment.

We can perhaps subtract 5 to 10 points from that tally as there are always voters who are unaware of even the most news-dominating scandals, particularly in presidential elections. These voters simply look at the partisanship of the candidate on the ballot and vote accordingly. Still, that leaves us about 30% of Americans who are perfectly fine with voting for a self-described Nazi. A staggering number.

Jan 6th Poll Shows Similar Results

In December, a poll about the January 6th insurrection arrived at a similar number.

The poll asked respondents who they believed was involved in the insurrection. An insurrection that produced hundreds of videos and photos documenting the attack. While most (70%) correctly named Trump supporters as the attackers, a third of Americans (27%) said that they believe that ANTIFA & Trump’s opponents were behind the attack, a prominent conspiracy that, of course, is backed up by no evidence at all.

So, about a third of Americans would willfully vote for a self-described Nazi and choose to believe one of the laziest conspiracy in history. While you can certainly win Presidential elections without these voters, they do have a great influence, especially in the Senate, and could deny Democrats any shot at a Supermajority if they keep turning out to vote even after Trump’s gone. As a result, any meaningful change will prove difficult, as most bills require 60 votes to pass the Senate.

Do you think any Democrat could ever win these voters? Let me know in the comments :)