My 10 Predictions for 2026
Read my predictions for the new year. From the Economy, to the Midterms to the War in Ukraine.
I tend to be one of those people who say Ha, I knew it! when something happens in the world. So, for 2026, I thought about what my predictions for the new year are going to be. Today, I’m posting 10 of these predictions below so that everyone has the receipts of how terribly wrong I’m going to be.
1. The US Economy will Crack Further
Don’t let the 4,3% Q3 GDP growth fool you. Small Businesses are already under severe pressure and have been laying off people. Job Growth, which is already scarce, is powered by larger firms, creating a dependency on these companies to succeed.
It may also be a reason why the stock market has continued to rally. The small businesses are the ones feeling the pain already. Something that won’t affect the broad stock market, as these companies are naturally not listed there.
For the economy, I predict rising unemployment to persist as job growth will remain scarce, but the US will avoid a recession if current consumer trends hold and the AI bubble doesn’t pop. The big blockbuster will be the appointment of a new FED chair as Jerome Powell’s term ends in the summer. Trump will likely nominate a loyal candidate, but he has to get approval from the Senate. An appointment of a questionable candidate could scare investors.
2. Stock Market: Modest Growth with Fear
The slump for small businesses should be enough to worry lawmakers ahead of the 2026 midterms, but the AI Boom continues to sweeten economic headlines, especially in the stock market. Once this boom falters, or once AI starts to replace the workforce, the economic trouble might also infect larger firms, and by that, the stock market.
While we might still be in the early stages for a bubble, Investors will have to navigate an increasingly risky environment. For 2026, Analysts predict the S&P 500 to grow by around 9% on average. However, any exogenous influence, from tariffs, to an AI crash, to data center issues could quickly deteriorate the market.
3. Midterms: Democrats Sweep the House, Senate Becomes Toss-Up
My forecast model currently estimates that Democrats win the House of Representatives with a stunning 236 seats (expected seats). A result that would exceed the Blue Wave of 2018. It will prove that Redistricting efforts yielded no advantage to Republicans and may, in fact, even hurt them.
The Senate – biased towards Republicans as they do better in small, rural states – will be much closer. Democrats need an astounding result to gain four seats and win the majority. They would have to pull off wins in states like Alaska, Ohio, or Texas. My forecast for the Senate is still in the works, but as of now, I believe that it will be a close race for the majority. Democrats will likely flip Seats in Maine and North Carolina and defend Michigan and Georgia, putting them to 49 seats.
If Democrats run their best candidates in Ohio (Brown), Alaska (Peltolta), and Texas (Talarico), they might be able to win two of these three races and clinch the majority.
4. Far Right AFD will win in Eastern Germany and Face More Legal Trouble
Germany faces a crucial election year as five states (including Berlin) will hold elections for state parliament. The most closely-watched elections will take place in Eastern Germany, where the far-right AFD could is polling around 40%. Such a result could bring them close to an outright, one-party majority. Building a coalition without them would become exceedingly difficult. Given that all other major parties have ruled out working with the AFD, these elections could create highly complicated scenarios.
In the meantime, calls to ban the AFD will grow louder. The State of Schleswig Holstein has already taken the first steps to consider if such a ban is legally possible. 2026 will also bring clarity on wether or not the ruling that the AFD is an extremist organization will stand - a critical fact in the determination if the party can be banned.
5. AI will Face Growing Headwinds
Deepfakes, resource-intensive data centers, and a threat to the workforce.
An increasing number of politicians are warning about the impact Artificial Intelligence could have on our society. Given that voters worry about these issues and tend to be skeptical of AI, the 2026 US Midterm Elections could become a first test of the political headwinds the AI industry might face.
6. Viktor Orbán will Lose Re-Election in Hungary
This is perhaps the boldest prediction in here. The Hungarian Election in Spring 2026 is forecasted to be very close, but with Péter Magyar as his opponent, Orbán faces the toughest re-election bid of his career.
Orbán has eroded Hungary’s democratic institutions for years, and the public backlash has never been louder. A loss for Orbán would also be a relief for Hungary’s European Partners, as Orbáns many blockades of EU policies, such as his reluctance to sanction Russia, have been a thorn in the eyes of the Union.
7. New Democratic Candidates for 2028 will Emerge
Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, AOC (Ocasio-Cortez).
These are a few of the names that have been thrown around in the debate about who will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028.
My prediction is that, after the midterms, some new names will enter the debate. It may be very likely that the Democratic Nominee in 2028 is someone the media isn’t talking about at the moment. In 2005, Democrats faced a similar situation. Well-known names were being considered and polled, but in the end, it was someone with a low national profile who clinched the nomination: The junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama.
After the midterms, other candidates will emerge. I will have my eye fixed on Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff might think about going for White House if he wins re-election comfortably.
8. Impeachment: Back on the Table
Democrats have been reluctant to even mention impeachment in Trump’s 2nd term after impeaching Trump twice in his first term. Nevertheless, as Trump continues to break the law on a fairly regular basis, Democrats might have no option but to prosecute Trump’s illegal activities. And then there’s the Epstein Scandal, with AG Pam Bondi clearly violating the standards of the recently passed Epstein Files Transparency Act.
I predict that we will see impeachment hearings and proceedings in 2026, either for Pam Bondi, another Trump official, or Trump himself. While Democrats may be wary about impeaching Trump again, in fear that it could look political, they will have to do their job and hold the president accountable.
9. Putin’s War in Ukraine Will Rage On
Donald Trump is still after a Nobel Peace Prize, which will motivate him to pursue peace in Ukraine, but the year 2025 has shown that the situation remains difficult.
This is not a conflict that is already resolving, where Trump can simply fly in and do a photo-op. While Ukraine is feeling growing pressure with each passing day, Russian forces are only advancing slowly. The big question will be if the US will keep supporting Ukraine’s war effort, but with Democrats retaking Congress, a total abandonment of Ukraine seems unlikely.
10. Culture: A Great Year for Movies
Beyond the world of politics, there is some joy to be found. 2026 will likely be a great year for movies at the box office. In the Spring, “The Drama” with Robert Pattinson and Zendaya, as well as “Project Hail Mary,” a book adaptation starring Gosling as an astronaut, will fill the theaters.
But it will be the Summer, when moviegoers will truly get spoiled. In June, Steven Spielberg’s new Alien movie “Disclosure Day” hits theaters, and in July, Christopher Nolan’s (Oppenheimer, Inception) new epic “The Odyssey” will be released. The latter could well gross up to one billion dollars. The newest Hunger Games prequel, “Sunrise on the Reaping,” and the last part of the Dune trilogy, “Dune: MESSIAH,” starring Timothée Chalamet, could complete a year that might prove moviegoing is alive and well, even as Netflix’s takeover of Warner Bros. looms over the industry.
Happy New Year!