Talarico vs Crockett: A Sober Perspective on Electability

What kind of Democratic Candidate can win in Texas?

I’ve so far avoided writing about the heated Democratic Senate race in Texas. With the primary date on March 2nd approaching, I want to offer my thoughts on a battle that centers around one big question: What kind of Democratic campaign can win Texas : One that energizes the core base, or one that works on a broad appeal and persuasion?

For those who don’t know, Texas is a target for Democrats in the 2026 midterm Elections this November. It was always considered a long shot for Democrats to unseat a Republican incumbent in a state Trump won by 14 points, but they are getting help from the other side of the aisle. Incumbent Senator Gregg Abbott, by all means a conservative hardliner, is facing a primary challenge from the scandal-ridden, MAGA candidate Ken Paxton.

If Paxton defeats Cornyn in the Republican Primary, which appears likely, Democrats will get a unique opportunity against a weak candidate. Their problem: They still have to choose their own fighter. After Colin Allred dropped out, the race for the Democratic Nomination is deadlocked between Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Senator James Talarico.

For a while, the race stayed civil. Crockett was a presumed favorite for the primary, given that she has a national profile, but as Talarico gained traction through his viral campaign, the debate around the race is becoming increasingly heated. There is a simple reason for that: Electability. Most Democrats in the US want Democrats to nominate the candidate who has the best odds of winning in November. It’s an argument often brought forth by Talarico supporters as they seem certain that Talarico is more electable than Crockett, upsetting supporters on her side. But before we look at who is actually more electable (both have their own arguments), let’s consider why electability matters so much in this race.

Electability matters because both Democrats represent somewhat similar values and have few policy differences. They are both the polar opposite of Paxton. They could also tip the Senate balance. So Democrats care about choosing a winner, even if that winner doesn’t align with them on all issues. It’s what propelled Biden to victory over Sanders in 2020. Exit polls show that voters who chose a candidate based on issues supported Sanders, voters who wanted to defeat Trump chose Biden, even if he didn’t represent their issues as well as Sanders did. No matter who Democrats support, a debate about electability is rarely a distraction, especially with candidates who have so few policy differences.

What the Polls are saying

Any general election polls for November should be taken with a grain of salt this early in the cycle. Nevertheless, it’s a decent starting point to look at the candidates’ head-to-head performance.

Both candidates do equally well against Paxton, who underperforms Cornyn. Where Talarico outshines Crockett, at least according to these way-too-early polls, is against the incumbent Senator Cornyn.

The Electability Argument for Both Candidates

Both candidates have talked about electability and why they think they can win in Texas. Their approach is starkly different, but it can be categorized. A helpful tool is the debate between the two candidates. I went through the transcript to get better insights.

Talarico - Winning through broad appeal

According to TIME, Talarico is “a head-down pragmatist who speaks about his Christian faith fluently, and has drawn an impressive national following of his own”.

Talarico has built a national profile from scratch in a very short time. He was initially propelled into national politics by the fight against Texas’s new Gerrymander and has since appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

The 36-year-old is a progressive by most standards, and his populist anti-billionaire message is reminiscent of Bernie Sanders, but he communicates it with an appeal to Texas’s Christian voter base. In the debate, Talarico focused on Billionaires and Texas, as he had done in his entire campaign. He also mentioned the word “win” in all its altercation more often than Crockett, at times highlighting his ability to win in Trump country. Talarico, using the electability argument in his presentation to Democratic primary voters, puts the focus on Crockett. The congresswoman has her own view of electability.

Crockett - Winning through record Democratic Turnout

Crockett entered the race as a well-known candidate. She delivered a speech at the 2024 DNC and is a frequent target of Trump’s attacks. Unsurprisingly, she mentioned Trump more often than Talarico did and used variations of the word “fight” eleven times. This goes hand in hand with her campaign, in which she presents herself as a fighter against Trump: Her announcement video showed her silently staring at the camera to the sound of Trump’s insults.

Talarico supporters were quick to criticize her approach, arguing that it’s difficult to win in a Trump +14 state that way. How could Crockett persuade swing voters and moderate Republicans, when the core of your campaign is fighting Trump? Crockett has an answer for that. She doesn’t intend to win through persuasion and broad appeal, but through turnout.

Texas has had comparatively low turnout in past elections (57% of adult citizens voted in 2024), so Crockett sees a lot of room for growth. She even hinted at the idea that she could win without persuading any Trump voters. While the 2026 electorate will be much bluer than the 2024 electorate, winning Texas without persuasion seems like a steep task.

What both candidates need to win

Crockett’s chances in the primary and the general rely on turnout and support from one of the most crucial Democratic voter groups: African Americans. Her strength with that group might win her the primary, but it gets more difficult in the general, where she will need the support of white Texans and also Latinos, who might feel insulted by her comments about Latino “slave mentality”.

For Talarico, turnout plays a significant role in the primary. He has to hope for strong turnout rates in rural areas and needs to persuade a decent share of African American Democrats to defeat Crockett. In the general elections, things could look better for him. African Americans, if they turn out, historically support the Democratic nominee. Talarico could then try to use his broad appeal approach to get across the finish line.

To sum it up, Crockett’s fighter campaign that counts on energizing the base is a decent strategy to win a primary, because that’s where the base decides. Talarico’s approach is much more suited for a general election battle in Texas. He will have to overcome the obstacle of his low name ID in the primary, but if he does, he might be in a pristine position against Paxton. After all, 2024 has taught us that being a “generic Democrat” without baggage can have its advantages.

Who will it be?

The result next week will be relatively close. While polls show a slight lead for Crockett, prediction markets are betting on Talarico. Whoever wins will have to look ahead to November and face the truth: Electability matters.