The fallout from Trump's Trade war is yet to come
Trump's approval has already taken a big hit, but the real tariff fallout is still months away.
Trump's approval rating has taken a big hit from his “liberation day” tariff chaos. Polling averages suggest that his net approval is almost 10 points underwater. American voters seem to grow increasingly frustrated with Trump's handling of Inflation, the economy, and trade.
Even though his approval rating has already declined, there is room for much more downside as the full fallout of Trump's trade war won't be felt until the coming months.
Up to now, it has been the stock market, tumbling 401K’s, and negative news coverage about the chaos that led to Trump’s approval tumbling. The real fallout of a trade war and the potential for a persistent recession is yet to come.
Tariff chaos isn’t felt right away
Take Trump’s 145% tariffs on China that went into effect this April. Trade Analysis shows that goods take around a month to get shipped from China to California, where the tariff on the imports would have to be paid.
If one predicts that trade from China to the US will fall off a cliff after Trump’s trade war, it will still take time until those effects are felt. Because the goods arriving now may have been sent in March when the trade outlook was still much better. Today, there are reports of usually busy US ports, seeing a sharp decline in traffic and imports, hinting at a decline in trade.
But what happens if trade from China and other countries begins to vanish in the coming months? Trump may not like imports, but trade plays a big role in the US economy.
The trade sector is a pillar of the US economy
The latest data shows that around 30 million people in the US are employed in the trade industry. Truckers, one of the largest employee groups in the US, make up a stunning 3.5 million jobs.
These jobs would be at risk if the flow and volume of Trade plummets. There already have been reports of struggling trucking companies with empty order books. This industry will suffer the full effects of Trump’s trade war, and if Trump doesn’t reduce tariffs significantly, it could have a lasting effect on the US economy.
Prominent banks now see a recession as increasingly likely. The tariff fallout in the trade sector still lies ahead of us. (The GDP has already decreased in the first quarter of 2025, a recession is defined as a fall in GDP in two successive quarters)
If trade plummets and workers in the huge trade sector start to lose jobs, a recession will become even more likely, and Trump’s approval may become even dimmer.
How low can Trump’s approval go?
The last few days have already brought us some blockbuster polls. The NYT, Fox News, and Pew Research Center saw Trump’s net approval declining rapidly, falling to negative double digits.
Nate Silver’s approval average for Trump, which moves slower over time, has dropped to -9.7%. His approval was positive just 6 weeks ago. Some polls even have Trump close to -20% approval, which would be a record low for him that resembles his approval after the events of January 6th, 2021.
But, as mentioned before, the most drastic effects of Trump’s trade policy still lie ahead. If Trump doesn’t pull back tariffs and trade falls off a cliff in May & June, thousands of people in the trade sector could lose their jobs. A persistent recession would then seem much likelier than now. It’s a scenario that should cause Mr. Trump serious headaches because Americans base their voting decisions in elections and approval ratings of Presidents on one thing more than anything else: The economy.
The first effects can already be seen: Empty ports, shrinking GDP in Q1 of 2025, and mass layoffs at delivery company UPS. But the worst for the US economy and Trump is still to come.