Which State Should Kick-Off the 2028 Primary? A Closer Look + Poll Results

Five States have applied to kick off the 2028 Democratic Primary. Let's take a look at their electoral profiles and find out which state the Election Community chose.

According to a report from The New York Times, five states have applied to the DNC to become the first contest in the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary.

For those who don’t know, the first primary contests are held in a few states on separate dates. In the last cycles, Iowa traditionally kicked off the primary season, but the DNC seems poised to consider an alternative (South Carolina went first in '24). The first state does matter, as the winner of the first contest enjoys momentum and a boost in the polls for the states to come. That’s why choosing the first state of a primary is so delicate. You want to analyze all demographic implications carefully. For example, a state with a high share of Black voters might help Kamala Harris, while a predominantly white state like Iowa could help the chances of Gavin Newsom.  

For 2028, the five applicants are: Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa.

These five states offer a vastly different Democratic primary electorate, which becomes evident in the following charts. To get the full picture, I’m going to compare the states’ Democratic voter profile from 2020 exit poll data regarding race, education, geography (rural/urban), and age. I’m aware that the demographics of these states may have changed a bit since 2020, something I will consider in my analysis.

Let’s start our analysis with Iowa and New Hampshire. The biggest argument against these two states that started off the 2020 cycle is that they aren’t diverse. Their electorate is around 90% white. Latino and Black Voters, who make up a big chunk of the Democratic electorate, aren’t represented at all. In 2020, Pete Buttigieg got off to a fantastic start in Iowa and New Hampshire, which both had a mostly white electorate, but he fell behind once more diverse states came into play. While New Hampshire has gotten more diverse over the past six years, it still lags behind its competitors.

Looking at density, Iowa provides one of the most rural electorates, but with a nice slice of urban and suburban voters, while 61% of New Hampshire’s 2020 primary electorate lived in the suburbs.

Where they offer a more evenly balanced electorate is education - they have the highest share of college-educated voters among the five, and age. The three other states may be drastically different from each other regarding race, but they all have an older electorate. Iowa and NH both had a decent share of voters ages 17-44 (45%), giving young voters a voice.

Next up is South Carolina. The state was the fourth and last contest before Super Tuesday in 2020, and it gave Biden his first win. South Carolina’s electorate has the largest share of Black Voters amongst the five (57%), who powered Joe Biden to a decisive win that paved the way for him to beat Bernie Sanders. A large part of that success was due to Rep. Clyburn’s late endorsement. The high-ranking congressman still wields a lot of influence over SC’s African-American electorate.

What is easily overlooked is that South Carolina, not Iowa, had the largest share of rural voters (41%) in the 2020 primary. The state is growing in population, so the strong suburban number (39%) and the relatively small urban share (20%) might have grown. Where the state fell out of line with its competitors is in education. 60% of primary voters there didn’t have a college degree, far higher than the Democratic average for a state and the four other applicants. While giving South Carolina the first slot would thereby empower an underrepresented group amongst Democrats (non-college graduates), the state might not be representative of the national electorate come election day. Its 2020 electorate was also the oldest among the five applicants - 71% of voters were over 45 years old.

Now let’s get to the two states that, according to my poll, are the favorites of the American online election community.

Nevada offers a racially diverse electorate. While 65% of its voters in the 2020 Democratic primary were white, the remaining third is somewhat evenly split. Latinos would get a voice at the start of the primary as they made up 17% of the state, but black and asian voters also get to weigh in more strongly than they would in Iowa or New Hampshire. Geographically, the state is very unique. 2020 exit poll data only differentiated between voters from Clark County (Las Vegas), who made up 70% of the electorate, and voters from the rest of the state. Given its swing state nature, the decent geographical balance with urban + rural voters, and a diverse electorate with a high share of Latino voters, Nevada might be a strong pick. But there’s one more.

North Carolina has perhaps the most appealing profile of these five states. Black voters make up a third of the electorate there, a share not as astronomically high as in South Carolina, but strong enough to make an impact. At the same time, other minorities don’t get diluted, as only Nevada was able to post stronger numbers for the Latino and Asian/Other voter groups. Additionally, the growing state had a nice divide of suburban (46%) and urban voters (40%), two absolutely crucial groups for Democrats in recent years. The education divide is pretty balanced, and the electorate is not problematically old. The only caveat is that rural voters, a bleak spot for Democrats, would not be at the center of attention.

North Carolina would be my pick. It’s a growing swing state that has been trending left ever so slightly. It’s diverse, but it doesn’t give one group disproportionate voting power. That seemed to be what most poll respondents thought as well.

Note: The chart only contains the results from respondents from the United States (n = 113). The complete sample (n = 165) chose Iowa over Nevada for 2nd place. North Carolina remained in first place with both groups. Overall, the sample is young (95% are younger than 45 years old), liberal (78% liberal), and disproportionately male (73% male).