Who will be the new pope: Favorites of the Conclave
The Conclave is underway: Here are the favorites
The conclave to elect a new pope started this Wednesday. The first round of voting is already over and has ended with black smoke, meaning no pope was elected. This is a common result for a first ballot, as one cardinal needs a 2/3 majority to be elected pope.
But starting on Thursday, the Cardinals will take four ballots daily: two in the morning and two in the afternoon. This means the election of a new pope could be hours away.
Who are the favorites to succeed Pope Francis, and where will they steer the catholic church: back to its conservative traditions or forward towards reform as Francis intended?
Papal conclaves are much harder to predict than normal elections, as they can often be extremely unpredictable. Most news outlets did not have Cardinal Bergoglio on their list of favorites before he won the Conclave and became Pope Francis.
But sometimes the frontrunner wins, as it happened with the election of Cardinal Ratzinger in 2005.
Here are the favorites, according to betting markets:
Pietro Parolin - The man everyone knows
Odds according to Polymarket: 28%
Parolin has been the Secretary of State of the Vatican under Francis. Almost every Cardinal knows him, which could give him a boost, as many Cardinals are new to the proceedings. He is also known to be skilled and experienced in the Vatican’s politics and was central in carrying out Francis’ vision. This could help him secure votes from the bloc of cardinals looking to continue Francis’ progressive approach.
Luis Antonio Tagle - The Asian Francis
Odds according to Polymarket: 20%
There’s a reason Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines is called the “Asian Francis”. He has a similar popularity among the believers in his country and a record of fighting for the poor. He would be another “people’s pope” (He even went viral when he sang and danced to “Imagine” by John Lennon)
He is also seen as one of the most progressive cardinals, as he has repeatedly supported the LGBTQ+ community and spoken out in favor of reform. Tagle would be the first Asian Pope after Francis became the first South American Pope.
Matteo Zuppi - The progressive Italian
Odds according to Polymarket: 10%
Another progressive is Matteo Zuppi. The Italian had a close relationship with Francis and was the cardinal sent on a piece mission to Ukraine in 2023. He is often seen riding his bicycle through Rome and is considered popular among believers.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa - Moderate
Odds according to Polymarket: 9%
Yet another Italian cardinal (they have the most voting cardinals) is repeatedly being mentioned as a contender for the papacy. He serves as the latin patriarch of Jerusalem. He is considered a moderate.
Peter Erdo - Conservative
Odds according to Polymarket: 7%
The first real conservative in this list is Peter Erdo. The Hungarian Cardinal stands against many things Francis did, like blessing same-sex couples.
Peter Turkson - Moderate
Odds according to Polymarket: 7%
Africa is sending 18 cardinals to vote in this Conclave. That’s more than ever before and rightfully so. After all, catholicism is growing on the African continent. Decentralizing the church away from Europe was one of Francis’ goals as Pope. Africa, like Asia, is also looking forward to electing a Pope from their continent for the first time.
Turkson is a Cardinal from Ghana. He wants to fight climate change like Francis, but has spoken out against same-sex marriage.
Final words
One of these men could become Pope, so could someone else. There are two important questions that will guide this Conclave.
Francis appointed many of the Cardinals voting in this Conclave. Will they look for someone who resembles his positions and carry on with progressive reforms?
Will a well-known European insider, like Parolin, have an advantage? Then an Italian Pope will be likely. Or will the Cardinals, who are more diverse than ever, look for someone from a place where their religion is growing, like Asia or Africa?