Will December 2nd Become Trump's Worst Nightmare?
Morale is low among congressional Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. A special election in Tennessee's 7th District could make matters a lot worse.
Even if you are an election nerd like me, you probably never heard about Tennessee’s 7th congressional district before the Summer of 2025. It’s a conservative district that was labelled as a safe Republican seat in the last elections. In 2024, Republican congressman Mark Green won it with 60% of the vote and a margin of +22 points. Democrats would have to outperform their 2024 results by almost 25 points to win the district, putting them in uncharted territory. To put this into context: If Democrats were to improve their results in the 2028 presidential election by 25 points compared to 2024, they would win over 450 electoral votes, carrying states like Kansas, Texas, and Missouri. In other words, winning Tennessee’s 7th congressional district sounds like a far-fetched dream for Democrats. Nevertheless, next Tuesday, on December 2nd, that dream may become reality, and if it does, Republicans and Trump are in a lot of trouble. Not only because it would sound the alarm for next year’s midterm elections, but because Republicans could even end up losing control of the House before that.
Congressional elections aren’t until next year, when the 2026 midterms take place, and the entire House of Representatives and a third of the US Senate will be up for re-election. However, in case a member of the House dies or resigns, special elections can be held. This is what will happen in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district next Tuesday, because Republican Mark Green resigned from his seat this summer after voting against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”. Normally, this wouldn’t be an election Republicans should have to worry about. It’s an R+22 district and, as explained, Democrats would need a performance not seen in decades to make the election competitive. It’s a long shot, but with Trump’s dwindling approval rating and soaring unpopularity, they might have a unique opening.
Democrats already registered some impressive electoral performances in 2025. They won big in the governor’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia, improving Harris’ margins by about 10 points, and outperformed their 2024 results in this year’s special elections by an average of 15 points. Next week, they might finally be able to use this momentum to flip a deep-red seat. A victory in Tennessee’s 7th district, which should usually be safely Republican, could be the snowflake that triggers the avalanche that could become Trump’s worst nightmare.
Before we dive into the consequences that a loss in Tennessee could have for Trump, let’s take a look at the election. Can Democrats actually win?
Poll Shows Dead Heat in Tennessee
It is almost certain that Democrats will outperform their 2024 results by a stunning margin. My guess is that they do at least 10-15 points better, and that is my most modest prediction. According to betting markets, there’s a 90% chance that Republicans will not win by more than 10% which would already be a strong underperformance compared to the 22% of victory in 2024. But as this is a heavily gerrymandered and deeply conservative district with large rural areas, Democrats need more than just a 15-point swing in their direction. They need to win over dissatisfied Independents and drive up turnout in their own strongholds. Special elections have lower turnout rates than Presidential elections and even midterms. In the Trump era, Democrats have done very well with college-educated voters who vote regularly, while Trump & Republicans do better with uninformed and sporadic voters. This puts Democrats in a decent position for special elections. If Trump voters stay home, and more informed Democratic voters turn out in great numbers, the Democratic Candidate Aftyn Behn might just pull off the unimaginable. So far, turnout in Democratic strongholds looks promising, and the first real poll gives Democrats even more reasons to hope.
According to the newest poll from Emerson College, Republican Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn are essentially tied, with Van Epps leading Behn 48% to 46%. If that were the final results, Democrats would fall short of winning the seat, but their impressive performance would send shivers down the ranks of the Republican Party.
Republicans Are Getting Nervous
There have already been reports about low morale among congressional Republicans. Their majority is slim, holding just 219 over the Democrats’ 213 seats, with three vacancies: The mentioned Mark Greene from Tennessee, Democrat Sylvester Turner from Texas, who passed away this year, and Democrat Mike Sherill, who left Congress to become New Jersey’s new Governor. Both Democratic vacancies are expected to be easily won by Democratic candidates in the coming months, which cuts Republicans’ majority to just 4 seats (219-215), meaning they can’t allow themselves even two defections when voting on a bill. Such a slim margin is reason for discomfort among Republicans, who are not blind to Trump’s low approval ratings and Democrats’ electoral performances. All these members of the House are up for re-election and have to face angry voters in 2026, who could topple their political careers. This dire outlook (Democrats are already heavily favored to win the House in the 2026 Midterms) has led some Representatives to consider resigning to avoid a very public electoral loss. If Democrats pull off a fantastic performance in Tennessee next Tuesday, even more Republicans might ask themselves: Am I willing to risk my political career in defense of a deeply unpopular president who can never appear on the ballot again? As a result, even more of them might throw in the towel, gifting Democrats a unique opportunity to win the House before the midterms even take place. Just last week, Marjorie Taylor Greene (referred to as MTG), a longtime Trump ally and conspiracy theorist, announced that she would resign from Congress this January, creating another vacancy for Republicans. If Democrats were to win in Tennessee on Tuesday, the House would then have 218 Republicans to 216 Democrats, with one vacancy, the seat of MTG. In this scenario, Republicans couldn’t allow themselves a single defection, as any vote that is tied in the House “shall be lost”.
That is the political implication the election in Tennessee might have for lawmakers in Washington. The avalanche that a Democratic upset would trigger might have even more consequences.
Will Republicans Abandon Trump?
The New York Times wrote that some Republicans are starting to look beyond the Trump era, and recently, Trump has struggled to affirm his iron grip on the party, notably losing the fight to not release the Epstein files. Trump has long wielded his electoral power like a sword that strikes down any Republican who defies him. One endorsement from him was always enough to even sink the prominent critics from his own party, like Liz Cheney, in a Republican primary election. If Trump’s approval numbers keep dropping and Democrats continue to stun with their electoral victories, Republicans will be forced to ask themselves if they are still willing to bend the knee to Trump. A first test will come in West Virginia’s Republican primary, where Trump has endorsed a challenger to Representative Thomas Massie, a vitriolic Trump critic and Republican who pushed for the release of the Epstein files. If Trump’s chosen challenger should fail to unseat Massie, it could be a sign that his power over the party is fading.
The 2026 midterms might then deliver the final blow. Winning the House and the Senate, Democrats could block most of Trump’s policies, except for his executive orders, but these may not save Trump in the end. Calls among Republicans for a future after Trump’s reign will grow louder, and Trump could risk becoming a lame-duck President. He could also face fresh impeachment charges. His last two impeachments died in the Senate, mostly because Republican Senators did not want to offend their leader and his droves of devoted followers. In Trump’s first impeachment trial, it is said that around 30 Republican Senators believed that Trump had done something illegal, but they weren’t willing to take the risk of publicly voting to remove Trump from office. If Trump’s grip on the party continues to fade in the coming year, these Senators might think differently about removing Trump from office.