World Cup Special: What Does the Data Say?
Take a look at how good the defensive players and offensive players of each World Cup nation are. Which squad is an attacking one? Which one relies on a great defense?
It’s World Cup time!
Granted, the joy is somewhat subdued, even for a die-hard football (yes, it’s called football) fan like me. The Trump administration’s attacks on democracy and civil rights, the barring of fans, and even a referee from Africa are certainly one issue. The other problem: Horrendous prices and a FIFA President who cozies up to Trump and couldn’t care less about those who make this sport so great: the Fans.
We will likely get a mixed World Cup, with a lack of fans present from multiple nations. Nevertheless, everyone I know is busy trying to guess who will win the trophy this time. I want to show you what the data says about each of the 48 teams, with a focus on the offensive and defensive tilt of each nation.
Offense vs Defense: How is Each Nation’s Squad Structured?
There is extensive material out there from data analysts predicting the World Cup, and they all come to a similar conclusion (more on that later). I didn’t want to put you through the same ordeal to tell you the favorites are favored to win. Instead, I tried something new. I collected data on the market valuation of each World Cup squad and grouped it by defensive and offensive players. Doing so would allow me to detect which squads have a more valuable - meaning better - offense and which have a more valuable defense.
You can interact with this chart to reveal details of each nation. The note at the bottom is important because if this weren’t a logarithmic graph but one where the scales are proportional, most smaller nations would be cramped in the bottom-left corner, as the distance in absolute value is much greater between the top nations than between smaller nations. While this visualization does not show an accurate scale of total market value, it does give an accurate representation of each nation’s defensive/offensive tilt. Here are some takeaways:
On average, the offense is more valuable: Because offensive players usually enjoy a better market value, most teams have a more valuable offense. The trend line, therefore, represents the average among our 48 squads. Mexico, which lies right on the trend line and represents the perfectly balanced nation among the 48 teams, has an offense that is 1.4x more valuable than its defense.
Most smaller teams rely on a good defense: Many immense underdogs like New Zealand, Curacao, and Uzbekistan have a much more defensive team than the average participant. Cape Verde is perhaps the best example, with a total squad valuation of €54.5 million. €41.4 million of that comes from the defense.
Ecuador is the biggest outlier among competitive nations: Ecuador is favored to make it to the knock-out stage. Nations with a similar market value live close to our trend line, but Ecuador doesn’t. Their defense is almost four times more valuable than their offense, powered by two center-backs, William Pacho of Paris St. German and Piero Hincapié of Arsenal FC. Both played in this year's Champions League final.
The favorites are close together, but differences emerge: Brazil has the biggest spread in valuation in favor of their offense, while Portugal has a slight defensive tilt. France has a slight offensive tilt, driven, of course, by their start attacking trio: Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olisé. Germany has the most balanced squad out of the broader favorites, followed by Spain and England.
Star Players can distort the picture: Having one star player with a stellar market value can create a disbalance in the valuation between defense and offense. Norway is a good example of this. Their offense is 4.5x more valuable than their defense, but if you strip away their star striker, Erling Haaland, that factor plummets to 1.9x, which would be close to average.
One note about my method: Defensive players include the goalkeeper, all defenders, and defensive midfielders. Offensive players include center midfielders, offensive midfielders, wingers, and strikers. Some players, most often midfielders, can be used both in offensive and defensive positions. Here’s the data as a searchable table, with the defense and offense valuations as a share of the total valuation:
Who Will Win (According to Data)?
Predicting a World Cup winner like predicting an Election with statistical data is a widely used practice. I can point you to Nate Silver’s extensive World Cup predictions, which are based on countless data points. Long story short: Most models and experts expect the best squad to win, which would be France and Spain. Other favorites are Argentina, England, Portugal, or maybe even Germany.
I will watch as many matches of the World Cup as I can, even as the circumstances under which the greatest event in the world is held get more terrible by the day. FIFA and the US as a host may have lost their ways, but the beautiful game, as they call it, will always bring people together, no matter the circumstances.
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