2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
Welcome to Frontline Democracy’s 2026 Election Forecast Model.
Below, you’ll find the forecast for the 2026 House of Representatives Election, including a map of all districts. I used a mix of fundamentals (district baselines, incumbency effects) and national environment data (Generic Ballot, Special Elections) to create the model. District-level polls will be included once most candidates have been chosen and sufficient polls arrive. The forecast will be updated daily.
You will also find information on which redistricted maps the model uses.
This forecast will be updated every two days!
The model uses newly drawn maps in California, Texas, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Utah (Some of these maps are still being challenged).
Take a look at the distribution of the 40,000 simulations our model calculated for this forecast:
Very thorough model! Interesting to see NC-11 and FL-07 quite close, wonder if scandals and a blue wave push those over. Do you plan on showing the national environment you're forecasting?