The Redistricting War: An Overview of Where Things Stand
Democrats have an edge going into 2026, but with the end of the Voting Rights Act, the future looks horrendous.
With their 6-3 decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the conservative justices of the United States Supreme Court have weakened the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and escalated an already frantic, mid-decade redistricting fight. This article will show you which party is ahead by the numbers and give you a state-by-state overview of the status of redistricting and legal challenges.
For those who don’t know, states usually only draw their congressional districts at the start of every decade, when the new census comes in. When President Trump grew worried that Republicans might lose control of the US House in the 2026 midterm elections, he pressured Texas to redraw their congressional map in such a manner that five Democrats would lose their seats. Drawing district lines to get a partisan advantage, so-called gerrymandering, is a long-used tool in US politics. You can read about it in my article covering the situation in Texas.
Democrats Could Win the 2026 Redistricting Fight
Once Texas Republicans bowed to Trump's demands, a chain reaction started with Gov. Newsom of California being the first Democrat to respond, calling a referendum to draw out five Republicans in response to Texas’s new gerrymander. In the following months, more Republican states followed suit, but Democrats managed to press another gerrymander of their own in Virginia. Here’s an overview of all states that have redistricted so far and which party is ahead.
Republicans went into this fight with a head start, especially since they were more inclined to gerrymander in the past. Democrats had given away redistricting power to independent commissions and had to ask the voters to get it back. After redistricting amendments passed in Virginia and California, Democrats are now favored to win the redistricting fight for 2026. Their +4 seat gain from redistricting for 2026 stands in contrast to the -3 loss to Republicans in left column, which looks at the districts’ 2024 presidential lean. Why is that?
The foremost reason is that 2026 will likely be a good year for Democrats. Additionally, Texas Republicans made some ill-founded assumptions when drawing their new map. They counted on the historic Hispanic shift towards Trump in 2024 to stay permanent. However, recent polls and election results indicate that the voter group is souring on Trump. As a result, I currently project Republicans will only gain 2-3 of the 5 seats that seemed certain for the GOP if we look at the 2024 presidential results. Something similar could happen in Florida, where Hispanics play a big role as well. My forecast predicts that Democrats hold on to 3 of the 4 seats that have been redrawn so that Trump would have won there by ten points or more in 2024. Ohio’s new map moves two swing districts slightly to the right, and the democratic representatives there have been historic over-performers who could well hold on in a blue wave year. At the same time, Democrats will likely win all their new gerrymandering targets in Virginia and California. (Republicans might gain one or two additional seats in Louisiana, which the table above does not account for as that process is still ongoing).
The End of the VRA: A Road to Hell
I was pretty certain of my assessment that Democrats won the redistricting fight for 2026, but then came the Supreme Court chaos. The ruling weakening the VRA comes late, but some Republican-controlled states like Louisiana have indicated that they’ll try to redraw their maps ahead of the midterms. Nevertheless, most Republican states in the deep south will take up redistricting after the midterms, ahead of the 2028 election. Then, we might see a race to hell, because Democrats can counter with brutal gerrymanders of their own. As the table below shows, Republicans drawing out majority black districts in the south can be easily met by Democratic Gerrymanders, ending in a scenario where neither party gains anything. Neither party wins nor loses a single net seat. The only losers are the American people and their Democracy.
Is there an End in Sight?
Whether it comes this far or not will depend on a few things. First, there’s confusion as to how much the SC actually weakened the VRA and if compact majority-minority seats might still be protected. We will get clarity on this question because Tennessee republicans are trying to split up the compact congressional district in Memphis to net themselves yet another seat. Should the Supreme Court strike down such an extreme map, it would mean that the Voting Rights Act is weakened, but not dead. Republican gains from redistricting efforts in the South could then be seriously impacted. If the Tennessee map is allowed to stay in place, then all bets are off and we’re on a road to hell.
Another issue for redistricting after is 2026 Trump’s influence. The president has been the driving force behind this redistricting war, even going after state senators who refused to bow to his demands. If his influence should fade after the 2026 midterms, redistricting efforts might stall.
At last, there’s the most important and perhaps most pressing solution to his senseless fight: A nationwide gerrymandering ban. Democrats pursued a similar piece of legislation before, but it failed due to Republican opposition. With both parties feeling the pain of gerrymandering, a ban might be more likely, especially in a scenario where Democrats win a trifecta in 2028. If such a simple law were to be implemented, all the redistricting drama at the cost of democracy may end, and all US states would get fair maps with more competitive and engaging races. After all, a healthy democracy offers contests that engage citizens.
But for now, we are still focused on the ugly reality of redistricting. Here’s where the Florida & Virginia maps stand.
Florida: The latest state to draw out four Democratic seats (which, as explained, might not all flip). Florida’s state constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering, which should easily disqualify the new map. But the Florida Supreme Court is packed with Republican Judges and, if we have learned anything in the past, it’s that the law doesn’t seem to apply to everyone equally. Voting rights groups are still hopeful that even a biased court sees through this blatantly unconstitutional map.
Virginia: The new, voter-approved 10-1 democratic gerrymander is currently being challenged before the Virginia Supreme Court because of procedures Democrats took to get the redistricting amendment on the ballot ahead of the midterms. The process is taking longer than some Democrats had hoped, as the justices refused to simply block a lower court's order and will instead hear the case at length.
Let’s indulge the worst-case scenario for Democrats: Florida’s new map is allowed to stay in place while Virginia’s new map gets struck down. In that scenario, Republicans keep four seats on paper that they’d otherwise lose easily. They would, however, lose one of these four districts in 2026, even with the old map. No matter how this turns out, the Republican Party will lose the House of Representatives this November, and it won’t be particularly close. If they also lose the Senate on the same night, some Republicans might begin to wonder if all of this scorched-earth-redistricting was ever worth it.