It’s just 74 days until the 2026 midterm elections. My House forecast has been up and running since last December, but as we approach perhaps the most important midterm election in modern US history, it’s time to take a look at where things stand in the battle for the House and the Senate.
CONTENTS:
House of Representatives: Democrats Favored
The US Senate: A Difficult Path for Democrats
Governor Races & State Legislature
House of Representatives: Democrats Strongly Favored
The House of Representatives has 435 members, each representing a district of similar size. All laws have to pass through the chamber. The House can launch crucial inquiries such as impeachment hearings. It has no control over cabinet or Supreme Court nominations.
The battle for the House has turned ugly this year, as Republicans raced to brutally gerrymander the states to gain seats in what will be a difficult year for them. Their – often illegal – gerrymandering efforts will net Republicans about 5-10 seats, but that won’t be enough.
Our forecast currently gives Democrats an 89.5% chance to win the chamber. That is almost exactly the same odds the forecast gave them when I launched it last December (89,4%). A lot has changed since then, but as Democrats gained in the generic ballot (they now lead by almost 8 points), they offset Republican redistricting gains, keeping the odds stable.
If the election were to be held today, our forecast would project 233 seats for Democrats to 202 for Republicans. That’s close to Democrats’ final 2018 result, when they won the generic ballot by eight points.
Our forecast is slowly starting to incorporate more district-level polls as they arrive. In some cases, this boosts Democrats, as they are profiting from scandal-ridden opponents. For example, Democrat Brian Poindexter is favored to flip Ohio’s 7th district and unseat Rep. Max Miller (R). The district voted for Trump by 11% in 2024, but credible assault allegations by Miller’s wife (the daughter of Republican Senator Bernie Moreno) have put Democrats ahead.
The most impactful swings, however, will come only if the generic ballot moves substantially. If it does not move below D+4 – the margin of defeat Republicans can still win with because of redistricting – we can assume a Democratic victory in the House.1
Trump would then be unable to pass any more laws and would likely face uncomfortable hearings, although Democrats are holding off on calling for a third impeachment inquiry right now.
The Senate is A Toss-Up
The Senate has 100 members, with two Senators per state. That tilts the chamber in favor of small, rural states where Republicans do well. With a simple majority, a party can approve Cabinet members, Supreme Court justices, and pass reconciliation bills. If the House impeaches the president, the Senate holds the trial. 66 votes are required to remove the president.
Yes, I know you may have heard this a dozen times this week already, but the Senate is indeed a toss-up as of today. That alone is a monumental achievement for Democrats. The Senate favors Republicans, and Democrats need to pick up Seats in states that are considered likely or solidly Republican to win the Senate. In total, Democrats need to flip seats. They currently hold 47, but a 50-50 tie won’t help them too much since Vice President JD Vance acts as a tie-breaker.
Here are the steps Democrats need to take to climb the difficult ladder:
First, they need to hold their own ground. In a good midterm year, that should be no problem. Georgia was the prime target for Republicans, as it’s one of two states with an incumbent Democratic Senator that Trump won. But Republicans failed to recruit a decent challenger, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is ahead by over ten points in some polls. Ossoff’s strong polling performance and huge fundraising hauls have put the state out of play for Republicans and Ossoff on the map for 2028. The other state Trump carried where Democrats need to hold a seat is Michigan. Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is retiring, and Democratic voters have nominated DSA-aligned Abdul El-Sayed as their candidate. He is facing Mike Rogers, a scandal-free Republican who is well known in the state. Democrats' nomination of El-Sayed has tightened the race and given Republicans an easier path to holding the Senate, but as we get closer to November, partisanship will likely have its effect, and it will be difficult for Rogers to overcome a blue environment. Especially if El-Sayed manages to brand Rogers as yet another “yes”-vote for Trump's agenda. The President’s approval rating is down almost 20 points in Michigan.
The second step is flipping two states: Maine and North Carolina. Democrats managed to recruit former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper was an immensely popular governor and is strongly favored to flip the seat. He is leading comfortably in the polls and is well-known across the state. If I had to bet money on one seat Democrats can flip, it would be North Carolina. Maine, the easiest target on paper, has been controversial, as Democrats had to replace their nominee, Graham Platner, after sexual assault allegations surfaced. Their new nominee, Troy Jackson, shares Platner’s progressive values and working-class background (Jackson is a logger), but has no baggage and can focus on unseating Republican Senator Susan Collins. Collins has held the state of Maine, which voted for Clinton, Biden, and Harris, for four decades largely because of her moderate image. 2026 might be the year when some pro-Trump votes she has cast in the Senate might catch up with her.
The third step is where it gets tricky. Democrats are now at 49 seats and need two of the following four to win a majority: Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa. Trump won these states by over 10 pts, but candidate quality is working in Democrats' favor. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is trying to return to the Senate. Brown might need to overperform Democrats' generic ballot performance in Ohio to win, but he has done that before2. In Texas, James Talarico is trying to capitalize on the many weaknesses of his opponent Ken Paxton. In Alaska, native Mary Peltola is working to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan, a generic Republican incumbent. Normally, that’s a difficult task, but Peltola is popular in the state and won this week’s jungle primary ahead of Sullivan, almost reaching 50% (In past midterm cycles, Alaska’s November electorate turned out more Democratic than the primary electorate). Iowa is the last state on this list, because I see it as a heavy lift. The state has trended right in the past, and Republican nominee Ashley Hinson is no Ken Paxton. Still, working-class white voters have been souring on Trump, and Democrats also have a strong gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket. An early poll by the NYT showed Democratic nominee Josh Turek within the margin of error.
Almost all of these races will be incredibly close. VoteHub currently forecasts the Senate races in Ohio, Texas, and Alaska to be within just one point.
Governor’s and State Legislature
Last but not least, let’s take a look at some governor races. These are the least polarized races in America. Even in these times, Kentucky still has a Democratic Governor, and New Hampshire and Vermont have moderate Republican governors. Still, there are three important races I want you to know about.
Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff might win Georgia by more than 10 points, but he could only risk running for President if Democrats finally win Georgia’s governor race (the Governor is allowed to appoint a new Senator if Ossoff would leave a vacancy). The environment in the state favors them, but their candidate, Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, will have a hard time against Republican billionaire Rick Jackson, who is seen as less extreme than other Republican candidates. Even as many Georgians have split their Senate-Governor vote in past cycles, it will be difficult for Jackson to overcome what could be a blue wave year. A win for Democrats here could also be a lifeline in the ongoing redistricting war.
Ohio: In Ohio, former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is eyeing the governor’s seat. His opponent, Democrat Amy Acton, is hoping to prevent the billionaire from taking the state’s top position. They are tied in the odds.
Iowa: Last but not least, Democrat Rob Sand is slightly favored to become Iowa’s next governor. Sand is the only Democrat elected to statewide office in Iowa in 2022, and he enjoys great favorability ratings and bipartisan appeal. The NYT recently visited him on the campaign trail.
State legislature elections often go overlooked, but the recent redistricting fights have again proven how essential they can be. Democrats are seeking to gain trifectas by flipping state houses/senate in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. In Georgia, they might make inroads in the State Senate and perhaps even win the State House. The Texas State House is another possible target.
Winning state trifectas (controlling both chambers and the governorship) not only helps with redistricting. It could also put the US one step closer to ending the Electoral College if these states join the Popular Vote Compact. I wrote about the issue here.
And that’s a wrap. This is the first midterm election I am covering as a journalist and not just an election enthusiast, and I got a feeling that the outcome of this election and its many, many races will be felt in the years to come. Democrats have their shot at halting Republicans’ and Trump’s attacks on democracy. They have a chance of blocking his agenda and bringing balance back to the Supreme Court. But only if they win this November.
Democrats will have to fight redistricting before the 2028 election, or else they will risk losing the House again even when winning the generic ballot.
A current forecast by The Argument actually projects Democrats to narrowly win Ohio’s statewide vote. Still, Brown might need to overperform as he is facing an incumbent.
Thanks for the explanations of the different chambers :)